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The inflation report, which is closely followed by the markets, has been announced.
CBRT President Fatih KarahanHighlights from 's presentation on the inflation report are as follows::
“Our disinflation process continues.
We evaluate that domestic demand continues to slow down and reaches levels that support the decline in inflation.. With the impact of this slowdown, the current account deficit continues to decline. The underlying trend of inflation is slower than we anticipated.
Our tight stance on monetary policy, We will continue to ensure the continuation of disinflation.
Global demand outlook continues to determine commodity prices. Central banks of developed countries started interest rate reduction processes.
Data for the third quarter showed that the moderate course in domestic demand continues.. Supply indicators in the third quarter were consistent with domestic demand.
Output gap narrowed in the third quarter. We evaluate that the output gap continued its decline in the third quarter in the last quarter of the year..
With the decline in demand conditions, the general spread of the price increase weakens. Output gap will be a key component of disinflation.
THE POSITIVE COURSE IN CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE WILL CONTINUE
We predict that the cumulative current account deficit will decrease in the third quarter. We predict that the positive trend in the current account balance will continue..
We closely follow the main trend of inflation. We see that the decline in the main trend of inflation continues in October. Inflation trend is improving, although slower than we anticipated.
Return to school had an impact on services inflation in the third quarter. Relative price adjustment is largely complete with the return to school completed.
MONTHLY RENT INFLATION WILL SLOW DOWN
We think it is healthy to look at service inflation as rent and non-rent.. We evaluate that the inertia in rent inflation is higher than our predictions..
Price increases in services other than rent are gradually losing strength. Leading indicators regarding rent are, indicates that monthly rent inflation will slow down in the last quarter.
On the industrial side, we see a clear improvement in the pricing behavior of companies. In general, core goods inflation continues to remain low.
INFLATION FORECAST 6 SCORE INCREASED
2024 ve 2025 percent inflation forecasts 44 (previous percent 38) and percent 21 (previous percent 14) We updated it upwards as.
2026 eventually to 12 percent (previous percent 9) We predict that it will decline.
Inflation rate in the medium term 5 We estimate that it will stabilize by converging to its target..
We anticipate that annual inflation will decline steadily in the coming period, as the cautious stance in monetary policy is maintained..
It is not right to perceive the high revision as a change in monetary policy.. Tightness will be maintained when interest rate cuts begin, depending on the main trend of inflation.
CENTRAL BANKFROM MINIMUM WAGE DESCRIPTION
We do not make any formal or informal recommendations regarding the minimum wage..
It is not possible for us to make an evaluation as claimed.. We are not decision makers.”
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