CBRT Meeting Summary Announced: Domestic Demand is Slowing Down, Geopolitical Risks Threaten Fuel Oil.

Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) He then published his highly anticipated summary evaluation.. Bank, While noting that the slowdown in domestic demand has become evident,, noted that the increase in global energy prices poses a risk to the inflation outlook.

August Inflation Reduced to 31.51 Percent

According to the data in the meeting summary, Consumer prices in monthly percentage in August 1,84 while increasing, on an annual basis 0,24 percentage decrease by one point 31,51 took place at the level. CBRT, He emphasized that, in addition to increasing energy costs due to geopolitical developments and its reflections on transportation, education and communication services are the main items that push inflation up.. Energy prices increase by 100% in August 5,46 while rising; Fuel prices and refinery margins on diesel were effective in this..

Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks

It was mentioned that geopolitical shocks in global markets increased the upward pressure on inflation.:

• Oil Prices: Average barrel price of Brent crude oil in August 91 at dollar level, first of september 10 on the day 103 reached the dollar.

• Energy Corridor: Developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the rise in TTF natural gas prices, The energy group continues to negatively affect annual inflation through fuel oil and bottled gas..

Significant Slowdown in Domestic Demand

Turkish economy will grow by annual percent in the second quarter of 2026 2,3, percent compared to the previous quarter 1,1 grew up. The decline in private consumption expenditures, revealed that the weakening in domestic demand has become clear. While net exports made a positive contribution to quarterly growth, Leading indicators for the third quarter also confirmed that the weak course of domestic demand continues..

Sectoral Expectations and Financial Statement

It was stated that the course of inflation expectations poses a risk in terms of the disinflation process.:

• Market Participants Survey: 2026 year-end inflation expectation increased to 29.4 percent, 2027 The expectation increased to 21.9 percent.

• Sectoral Expectations: companies 12 Annual inflation expectation for next month is percent 32,8 while being, Household expectations reached 45.6 percent.

• Deposit and Loan Interest Rates: 24 July – 4 TL deposit interest rates decreased to 44.4 percent in September., TL commercial loan interest rates decreased to 49.3 percent. Consumer loan interest rates 63, vehicle loan interest rate 37,6 while being; housing loan interest rates increased to 41.9 percent.

• Reserves And Portfolio: CBRT gross international reserves 184,2 rising to billion dollars, of Turkey 5 annual CDS premium 220 decreased to the basis point level. Net portfolio inflow is 1,1 amounted to billion dollars.

The Board kept the policy rate constant at 37 percent, He reiterated that the monetary policy stance will be tightened if there is a permanent deterioration in the inflation outlook..